La elección presidencial podría ser cancelada –y Trump podría ser reelecto.

La amenaza de Donald Trump de aplazar las elecciones no es más que otra de sus acostumbradas maniobras de distracción para dominar el ciclo noticioso diario. Lo ha hecho debido a las malas noticias económicas de hoy o para distraer la atención del funeral del congresista y líder de los derechos civiles John Lewis.

Es muy difícil creer que Trump no sepa, o que no le hayan aclarado varias veces, que las elecciones solo las puede aplazar el Congreso y que además la fecha para el fin de cada término presidencial –20 de enero– está establecida en la Constitución. Debe saber también, o se lo han dicho, que en EEUU se han celebrado elecciones en medio de depresiones económicas, epidemias, amenaza de ataques terroristas y guerras mundiales. Y si aún así decidiera hacerlo, es muy difícil que inclusive sus mayores testaferros, los senadores republicanos, le apoyen en un plan que no les trae beneficio ninguno y que les obligaría a gastar capital político apoyando una maniobra decididamente inconstitucional. De hecho, el líder de la mayoría de Senado Mitch McConnell ya desestimó a priori un aplazamiento de las elecciones.

El verdadero peligro es mucho más sutil y sin embargo totalmente constitucional. Al crear confusión y desconfianza sobre la validez de una elección donde muchos van a votar por correo debido al peligro del coronavirus, Trump puede estar preparando el terreno para el robo de las elecciones a manos de las asambleas legislativas estatales de mayoría Republicana.

Como nos recordaron a todos en el 2016, en EEUU no se elige al presidente por el voto popular directo sino por el Colegio Electoral. La Constitución establece que la asamblea legislativa de cada estado nombra un número de electores que en su turno votan en el Colegio Electoral. Hay 538 electores y un candidato necesita 270 para ganar. Pero la Constitución no dice que los electores tienen que dar sus votos al ganador del voto popular de cada estado, ni siquiera establece que tenga que haber un voto popular.

Sería perfectamente legal que, luego de la elección, la asamblea legislativa de uno o varios estados declarara que el voto popular no fue confiable y se negara a certificar la elección, procediendo entonces a nombrar electores que votarían por el candidato de su preferencia. El voto popular sería borrado y en su lugar los votos electorales serían dados de manera partidista.

Tomemos como ejemplo a La Florida, un estado donde la asamblea legislativa tiene mayoría republicana pero donde los resultados del voto popular oscilan entre los dos partidos (y donde hay más votantes registrados demócratas que republicanos) y supongamos que Joe Biden obtiene la mayoría de votos en el estado. En esta hipótesis, el gobierno de DeSantis se negaría a certificar la elección aduciendo fraude y la asamblea legislativa nombraría a electores que le dan los 29 votos electorales del estado a Donald Trump. Sería perfectamente legal y constitucional. Y lo peor es que esta maniobra puede ser ejecutada estado por estado, dejando que algunos elijan al ganador del voto popular e invalidando la elección en otros.

En la actualidad las asambleas legislativas de mayoría Republicana controlan un total de 294 votos en el Colegio Electoral, 24 más que los necesarios para reelegir a Donald Trump sin necesidad de contar un solo voto del pueblo. ¿Es factible este escenario? En el año 2000 la Corte Suprema, en un voto partidista, suspendió el reconteo de los votos en la Florida dándole la elección a George W. Bush. Esta nueva maniobra sería mucho más atrevida e impopular, pero en los tiempos que corren y con un Partido Republicano totalmente plegado a las demandas de un populista autoritario, todo es posible.

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