Ajedrez político

Hasta hace muy poco, en todo el mundo, las revueltas y golpes de estado ponían súbito y violento final a las democracias. Hoy, incluso repúblicas establecidas padecen lo que se ha llamado recaída o desconsolidación democráticas. Se trata de la erosión, gradual y discreta, de las instituciones y normas que garantizan las elecciones competitivas, la libertad de expresión y asociación y el Estado de Derecho. El proceso es impulsado por gobiernos deseosos de monopolizar el poder y eliminar cualquier obstáculo a la realización de sus ideales políticos.

La estrategia oficial buscará eliminar cualquier freno a su agenda; sean estos partidos de oposición, el sistema judicial, medios de comunicación autónomos y ciudadanía movilizada. El repertorio desconsolizador incluye, entre otros, cambios de instituciones, distritos y fórmulas electorales, modificaciones en los requisitos para sufragar -edad, elegibilidad y voto en el extranjero, por ejemplo-, el asedio a la oposición partidista y la sociedad civil. También la asunción presidencial de potestades reservadas al parlamento, la captura del sistema judicial, el uso de referendos para modificar o aprobar constituciones, la imposición del control partidista sobre los medios de comunicación. A medida que el proceso avanza, la oposición se vuelve incapaz de ganar elecciones o, si gana, de asumir el cargo. Nadie puede controlar al empoderado Ejecutivo y las manifestaciones de protesta popular son, con fuerza, reprimidas.

Esta dinámica genera varias preguntas. ¿Una vez que un gobierno toma tal ruta, puede detenerla sin dejar el poder? ¿Basta el retroceso gradual para destruir la democracia? ¿La oposición sería capaz de revertir semejante deriva?

Una reacción temprana a la desconsolidación puede llevar a la oposición a bloquear los primeros pasos del gobierno: derrotando algún proyecto de ley en el parlamento, obteniendo una sentencia judicial favorable o postergando una decisión presidencial. Sin embargo, los casos recientes de Venezuela, Turquía, Hungría o Polonia, entre otros, muestran que los gobiernos desconsolizadores -con independencia de su signo ideológico, su base social y su orientación geopolítica- superan regularmente los obstáculos iniciales. Pese a lo que postula cierto fetichismo legalista, las democracias no contienen mecanismos institucionales que les salvaguarden frente a gobiernos electos que las subvierten honrando formalmente las normas. [i]Sobre todo cuando el oficialismo toma medidas aparentemente constitucionales -a través de cambios de prácticas y la aprobación de disposiciones menores- y cuenta con una importante base ciudadana, que avala y usufructua sus políticas.

La resistencia a la desdemocratización depende de sí, en ese contexto, los demócratas anticipan los efectos acumulativos de decisiones tempranas del gobierno. Pero si una mayoría de los ciudadanos reacciona sólo con base su percepción e intereses inmediatos -a menudo ligados al bienestar personal- y la gestión pública y macroeconómica se manejan con desempeño aceptable, la oposición podría ser impotente para evitar que el oficialismo asegure su ventaja actual y elimine los obstáculos institucionales a la entronización. Además, las primeras protestas contra el arranque autoritario del gobierno pueden mostrar a la oposición cómo un club de malos perdedores, unos paranoicos incapaces de respetar el veredicto democrático.

Solo mediante una eficaz y creativa labor de organización, diagnóstico y comunicación política los opositores pueden mostrar, al resto de sus conciudadanos -incluidos los simpatizantes del oficialismo- el proyecto real de un gobierno con horizonte autocrático. La disputa política asume entonces los rasgos de un juego de ajedrez; donde una jugada y un instante pueden hacer la diferencia. La historia reciente es pródiga en ejemplos de semejante dinámica.

(Texto originalmente publicado en La Razón, México, 27 de Julio de 2020)

[i] Adam Przeworski, Crises of Democracy, Cambridge University Press, 2019.

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    House loan. The most common, of course, is a mortgage when the purchased property acts as collateral for a loan. Sometimes a youth loan is issued, with lighter conditions for debtors. Still quite common is a housing loan that does not imply purchased housing in the form of collateral.
    Car loan – payday loans in Ohio to a car or similar vehicle. The key is often the purchased goods, making the terms of the loan better. Also, loan conditions are improved: car insurance, life and health insurance of the borrower, and receiving a salary to the account of the creditor bank.
    Land loan. To purchase a plot for construction or agricultural activities.
    Consumer. For purchases in modern supermarkets, equipment stores, you can take a personal loan right at the point of sale. Often, specialists located there can contact the bank and get a regular or fast payday loans. Borrowed funds automatically pay for the goods, and the consultant explains when and how to re-pay the debt.
    Educational loan. It is issued to students, as well as to applicants who have passed the competition, to pay for tuition at universities, colleges, etc.
    Broker loan. For the circulation of securities, payday loans in Ohio are issued to an exchange broker, se-curities are purchased securities.
    Others. Objectives not related to those listed, but agreed and approved by the creditor.

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